Chronicles

It’s not a technical battle; it’s a societal one. We can reclaim Ontario’s digital frontier from the phishing flood by arming ourselves with knowledge, technology, and vigilance. The time to act is before the next wave hits or you fall victim.

The ongoing wars in Ukraine and Israel, combined with economic upheaval in the United States, likely contribute to the rising number of phishing and spam attacks. However, direct causation is hard to pin down without comprehensive data tying specific incidents to these events. These crises create fertile ground for cybercriminals to exploit, amplifying the volume and sophistication of digital attacks. Whether this qualifies as “digital warfare” depends on the lens you apply—some of it aligns with coordinated cyber conflict, while much remains an opportunistic crime.

Cybercriminals have historically leveraged global conflicts like the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas conflict. For instance, during the Ukraine war, phishing campaigns spiked, with Russian state-backed actors increasing targeting of Ukrainian users by 250% in 2022 compared to 2020, and NATO countries seeing a 300% jump, according to Google’s Threat Analysis Group. Many attacks used war-related lures—like fake donation pleas or military-themed emails—to deploy malware or steal credentials. Similarly, the Israel-Hamas conflict saw hacktivist groups, including some tied to Russia, launch phishing and DDoS attacks, often piggybacking on the crisis to scam users or disrupt services, as noted by Bitdefender and TIME in 2023. These events don’t just inspire state-sponsored cyber operations; they also embolden independent actors to capitalize on chaos and public anxiety.

Economic upheaval in the U.S. adds another layer. Inflation, job losses, and financial uncertainty—evident in 2022’s bear market and oil price swings tied to sanctions—make people more vulnerable to scams promising quick relief, like fake investment schemes or job offers. The World Bank and IMF flagged how such instability, compounded by global shocks like Ukraine, strains economies, driving up desperation that scammers exploit. In Ontario, where phishing and Spam are reportedly surging as of April 2025, economic pressures could mirror this U.S. trend, especially as businesses and government agencies digitize further, expanding the attack surface.

Is this digital warfare? Partially. State actors, like Russia’s APT28 or Iran’s MuddyWater, use phishing as a weapon in broader geopolitical strategies—think disrupting Ukrainian infrastructure or targeting Israeli organizations – fits the “warfare” tactic: deliberate, tactical, and tied to physical conflicts. However, the bulk of phishing and Spam is still financially motivated, not ideological. Opportunistic cybercriminals—running ransomware or crypto scams—thrive in these crises’ confusion, not as soldiers in a digital army but as profiteers. The line blurs when hacktivists or loosely aligned groups, like Killnet or Anonymous Sudan, join in, blending activism with crime.

No complex numbers tie Ontario’s specific increase to these global events, but the pattern holds: crises amplify cyber threats. The Ukraine war’s cyber fallout, Israel’s regional tensions, and U.S. economic stress collectively churn the waters—some attackers fish with precision, others cast wide nets. It’s a mix of warfare and hustle, supercharged by a world on edge.

Comparative Analysis: Domestic vs. Global Factors
Consider the following table comparing the impact of Canada’s domestic uncertainties and global factors on scam emails:

This table highlights how domestic uncertainties in Canada complement global factors, creating a multifaceted threat landscape for scam emails in Ontario.

Canada’s political and economic uncertainty in 2025, including election-related instability, immigration policy changes, and trade tensions, likely contributes to the increase in scam emails. Scammers exploit these uncertainties by crafting relevant and convincing emails, targeting both individuals and businesses. Given the exponential rise in phishing and spam in Ontario, as mentioned earlier, domestic factors add to the global pressures, necessitating robust cybersecurity measures. Businesses and government agencies should enhance employee training, leverage advanced email filters, and report incidents to the Canadian Anti-Fraud Centre to mitigate these risks.

Key Citations

• 8 Predictions for Canada’s Economy in 2025 Business Data Lab
• Economic and Fiscal Overview 2024 FES Canada.ca
• Eurasia Group Top Risks 2025 Implications for Canada
• Canadian economic outlook for 2025 BDC.ca
• Canadian Outlook Bank of Canada
• Economic uncertainty will greatly impact the spread of cybercrime Help Net Security
• Here’s why cybercrime spikes during times of global crisis World Economic Forum
• Internet, email and telephone immigration scams Canada.ca
• Identify a scam or fraud ontario.ca
• Trudeau’s resignation spurs uncertainty across Canada’s economy Real Economy